When NATO members agreed last summer to increase defense spending, they lavished praise on Donald Trump for forcing the issue, believing that flattery would go a long way to keeping the president committed to the alliance and the cause of transatlantic security.
But the takeaway for Trump, it turns out, was something else altogether — that bullying and threats were highly effective means of compelling longtime allies to act. And that’s largely why, when it comes to his pursuit of Greenland, he is returning to the same playbook, starting from a place of outward hostility, believing that’s what it will take to get Denmark to sell the island to the United States.
“He got all these countries to pay their fair share into NATO security, and he did it by fear and sheer force of will,” said a senior White House official who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the president’s strategy. “He’s been proven right about that aspect, and he’s going to be proven right about this.”
Indeed, Europe has already bent the knee to Trump on multiple fronts. Beyond the defense spending, a European “coalition of the willing” has taken on the entirety of backing Ukraine with billions in defense aid and the European Union swallowed a 15 percent U.S. tariff on most European goods to avoid any further escalation.
But Trump’s obsession with taking Greenland is the kind of existential threat to European sovereignty that, in the eyes of some European officials and diplomats who spoke to POLITICO, demands a stronger response. The most they feel they could do to placate him is commit more troops.
“Once you start changing borders by caprice or by force, you don’t know where you end up,” said one of the diplomats granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive subject.
Trump’s saber rattling about taking Greenland from Denmark, echoed and amplified by a number of top aides, ratcheted up within hours of the successful military operation that removed longtime Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro from power.
“It’s a very effective message,” the senior White House official said. “Everyone now knows that America is not playing around, especially now.”
Trump, speaking to reporters during an event at the White House on Friday, stated that taking control of Greenland is only a matter of when — and how.
“We are going to do something on Greenland, whether they like it or not, because if we don’t do it, Russia or China will take over Greenland, and we’re not going to have Russia or China as a neighbor,” Trump said. “I would like to make a deal the easy way, but if we don’t do it the easy way, we will do it the hard way.”
Trump even questioned Denmark’s claim on Greenland. “I’m a fan of Denmark too,” he said. “But you know, the fact that they had a boat land there 500 years ago doesn’t mean that they own the land.”
Denmark has controlled Greenland for roughly 300 years and in 1916 the United States formally recognized Denmark’s interests in Greenland in exchange for the Danish West Indies, which became the U.S. Virgin Islands.
The president and his top aides have repeatedly emphasized that Trump’s threats should not be dismissed, especially if and when diplomacy runs aground.
And the president and his top aides are repeatedly emphasizing that Trump’s threats should not be dismissed, especially if and when diplomacy runs aground.
“My advice to European leaders and anybody else would be to take the president seriously,” Vice President JD Vance said on Thursday, calling on Europeans to take more steps to ensure Greenland’s security given the increased presence of China and Russia in Arctic waters. “If they’re not, the United States is going to have to do something about it. What that is, I’ll leave that to the president.”
After Trump raised the idea of claiming Greenland at the beginning of his term, Danish officials sought to keep the matter low-profile, hoping it would disappear. Now, with Trump’s interest renewed, they have urged their European counterparts to be more vocal about it. Denmark and six European leaders issued a joint statement saying Denmark and Greenland are the ones who “decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.”
With Secretary of State Marco Rubio expected to meet with his Danish counterpart next Wednesday in Washington, Vance and other administration officials suggested that military force was a long way off. Rubio privately told lawmakers earlier this week that Trump was looking to buy the island from Denmark rather than mount an immediate military operation, according to a person familiar with the matter and granted anonymity to describe the conversation.
But senior officials have both publicly and privately refused to rule out taking Greenland by force, which would effectively end NATO altogether — a cost that Trump made clear he’s aware of in an interview with the New York Times, stating that, eventually, “it may be a choice.”
Speaking so openly about rupturing a transatlantic alliance that has endured since World War II, however shocking to Europeans, isn’t new for Trump. His push for NATO to increase its defense spending began at the organization’s 2018 summit in Brussels where he threatened to withdraw the U.S. from the alliance if things didn’t change. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, coupled with a growing belief among NATO countries that he might actually pull America out of the alliance during a second term, finally led member countries to increase their defense spending.
Threatening a military takeover of Greenland as a last resort just days after the operation to oust Maduro has forced Europeans — and even some of Trump’s own allies and aides — to ponder just how far he might go.
“The messages we hear regarding Greenland are extremely concerning,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told reporters in Cairo on Thursday. “We have had discussions among the Europeans [on] if this is a real threat, and if it is, then what would be our response?”
Denmark is trying to find clarity and build relationships in the U.S. The Danish embassy earlier this year hired Mercury Public Affairs, the former home of White House chief of staff Susie Wiles.
And this week, Danish representatives met with Republican and Democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill. Danish Ambassador Jesper Møller Sørensen and Jacob Isbosethsen, the head of Greenland representation, “expressed an openness to discuss any measure that would enhance the security of the United States, while respecting the sovereignty of the Kingdom of Denmark” during a Tuesday meeting, Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.) said in a statement.
At the height of the Cold War, the U.S. had 10,000 troops and operated multiple installations in Greenland. The U.S. pulled back when it ended and now has one base and about 200 troops there.
Trump’s administration has rebuffed Danish offers for the U.S. to station more troops in Greenland or open additional bases. His advisers have sent mixed messages about what Washington is looking for in private meetings with European counterparts.
And Trump’s comments to the New York Times this week suggested that a more robust defense agreement and joint investment deals may not be enough for the former real estate executive. “Ownership is very important,” he said. “Because that’s what I feel is psychologically needed for success…ownership gives you things and elements that you can’t get from just signing a document.”
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Some Europeans have left private discussions feeling Trump is resolute about acquiring Greenland one way or another. Others say some of his aides like Rubio appear to be seeking an off ramp, according to two people familiar with the matter and granted anonymity to discuss it. The National Security Council’s director for the Western Hemisphere, Michael Jenner, has been the one to take meetings with diplomats about the Trump effort rather than the Europe director — highlighting the difference in how the U.S. and Europe view the matter.
For European officials, Greenland is a European security issue, while for Trump and his team, it is the latest extension of the so-called Donroe Doctrine that envisions U.S. control over its backyard.
“They’ve got this intellectual framework for thinking about the whole hemisphere, and they’re going to tie Greenland into that, which makes a lot of sense. So we didn’t have that holistic vision in the first term,” said Alex Gray, who served in the first Trump National Security Council and is now CEO of American Global Strategies.
But Europeans have struggled to respond. “Danes and the Europeans at large need to do much better,” said former NATO policy planning director Fabrice Pothier, now CEO of Rasmussen Global, arguing that Trump’s desire for Greenland is not rational, economic or rooted in security concerns.
“The problem is that this is not something you can easily address through economic sweeteners or national security arrangements,” he said.
NATO, too, is now discussing options to strengthen its Arctic flank, after Trump’s claims that Russian and Chinese ships were swarming Greenland. That new effort is driven by a genuine need to beef up its Arctic presence, according to two NATO diplomats granted anonymity to describe the motivations, as well as a desire to take Trump’s concerns seriously.
Some European officials fear that the Trump team might seek to acquire Greenland as part of a grand bargain for Ukraine.
That is not something the president is likely to do, the senior White House official said.
But, they said, everything is subject to change.
“We’re gonna try to exhaust all our diplomatic options and see how, see if we’re moving in positive steps,” the official said. “What we have done with everything is we go along and then we reassess every step of the way. It’s just like a business deal.”
Jacopo Barigazzi, Victor Jack and Seb Starcevic in Brussels contributed reporting.